جريدة عالم السياحة والاقتصاد، تهتم بصناعة السياحة باطيافها ، الشؤون الاقتصادية والبيئة والسياحة الدينية والمغامرة والسفر والطيران والضيافة

المخاطر السياسية والامنية والاجتماعية- بقلم المخرج محمد الجبور

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بقلم المخرج محمد الجبور
يلاحظ عدد من العاملين كمحللين أو باحثين في مؤسسات بحثية تابعة لاشخاص غالبا يبحث عن التحليل التقليدي ويكتب مابلائم او مايعجب رغبة الراعي المالي لمؤسسته البحثية او الراعي السياسي ويلاحظ انهم يجافون الحقيقة ليسمع متخذ القرار بكافة مستواياته مايجب أن يسمعه من اطراء وثناء وافراط في النفاؤل وهذا يبعدنا عن حقيقة التفسير المتعلق بالمخاطر السياسية والامنية والاجتماعية المحتملة الوقوع خصوصا جعلنا من العاطفة والرأي الشخصي والعقيدة الدينية أو السياسية والجزم السريع معيار للتفسير
قد ينظر الناس لنفس الشئ الذي ينظر اليه المحلل لكنهم يختلفون في ادراكه ولن يفسروا كما يفسره اخصائي السياسة فمثلا يدرك المحلل السياسي شكل التهديدات والتحديات الناجمة عن الازمات والظواهر المتفاعلة ويفسر مخارجها اكثر من غيره ويتخذ القرار الذهني السريع في معالجة أي قناعة أو مشكلة وعلى سبيل المثال ينظر الفرد العادي الى ظاهرة المخدرات على انها ظاهرة اجتماعية تتعلق بالصحة والاستنزاف البشري وذات جوانب جنائية بينما ينظر المحلل السياسي للظاهرة بشكل اعمق ويبحث جذورها السياسية التي تؤكد انها ظاهرة تستهدف النظام السياسي والمجتمع والتنمية المستدامة وتحويل المجتمع المنتج الى مجتمع مضطرب عبئ على الدولة خصوصا في خياراته المتعلقة بالنظام والامن والتعبير عن الراي وبذلك يكون قنبلة موقوتة قابل للتحول الى التصرفات اللامسؤولة التي من الممكن ان تخلق لضطراب سياسي يقود الى ازمات مركبة يصعب معالجتهاوهنا يختلف المحلل السياسي او الباحث في تفسيره عن الشخص العادي ومن خلال ذلك ينتج القائم بالتحليل مخرجات منهجية تحد من تطور الاحداث الى ازمات متفاعلة وهذا يعتمد على ادراكه وتفكيره بشكل منطقي علمي مهني وبتوظيف خزين المعلومات المتاح والمستحصل
يختلف مستوى الادراك من محلل الى اخر خصوصا في تفسير للأحداث وصنع القرار المناسب لمعالجتها وبالتاكيد يتحدد المحلل في عملية صنع القرار والخروج باستنتاجته حسب الصلاحية المخولة له وبلاحظ ان اخصائي السياسة او العامل في المحيط المؤسسي يشغل ازدواجية صتع القرار واتخاذه حسب نظاق صلاحيته المناطه به فان العامل في المحيط الدبلوماسي متخذ قرار عندما يتعلق الامر بمعالجة حادثة ما ضمن الصلاحية المخول بها بينما هو صانع قرار عندما يكون ضمن التفاعل السياسي الوزراي او ممثلا لدولته مخول في قضية ما وكذلك المدير في خصوص نطاق عمله وادراته المباشرة هو متخذ قرار ضمن السياقات العامة والصلاحية المخول بها بينما يكون صانع قرار ضمن محيطه التفاعلي داخل الوزارة او الجهاز الدبلوماسي وهكذاجميع القرارات المتخذة تخضع لفلسفة الادراك والتفكير والمعلومات والتي تصنع التحليل الناجح والموضوعي في معالجة الاخطار والتهديدات الحالية والوشيكة والمحتملة

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